Coronavirus versus flu mortality rate: Truth and perspective

I would like to offer some true perspective regarding the mortality rate of Covid 19 compared to the seasonal flu.
The WHO have lied to you using number manipulation, as the attached article will show.
The WHO is telling us the seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% compared to the 3.4%-4% mortality rate of Covid-19. But how did they come by those numbers? Through manipulation and deceit, that’s how.
When calculating for the flu they divided number of deaths by estimated cases of flu to come up with the .1% mortality rate.
By contrast, when calculating Covid-19 they divided the number of deaths by the documented cases of Covid-19, thereby negating those who are asymptomatic, to come up with their 3.4-4% mortality rate.
If you divide the number of deaths caused by flu by the number of documented cases the mortality rate is 10%.
Don’t buy into the fear mongering and manipulation.

7 Likes

@Brett13 - good points, all. However, we don’t know the full, factual numbers from China… and we may never will. Without those numbers, any other calculations are pure guesswork, as far as empirical statistical analysis is concerned, anyway.

6 Likes

That is exactly the point, in that the World Health Organization is intentionally not using full factual numbers in calculating death rates due to the flu. Instead they use fabricated “estimated” numbers.

5 Likes

You surely not suggesting that WHO beaurocrats are corrupt? Who do you accuse of corruption next - UN officials :wink:

5 Likes

Well…sort of anyway. China’s death from to symptomatic ratio was ~4% as of yesterday. U.S. was 1.7%. None of this information is facts, as it relies on information they can get their hands on. How many people think that they have a cold/allergies/flu and just ride it out? Most, I imagine, even with all of the media hype.

Without good data, a my data is better than your data conversation doesn’t get anyone anywhere. I wish that we had good data. Maybe we can give everyone an implant. Track them. Ahhhh, no thanks!

3 Likes

@Brad, you are completely missing the point. The World Health Organization is using an apples to kumquat comparison as related to death rate when comparing flu to Coronavirus.
It is not lack of data, it is, plain and simple manipulation to fit an agenda.

4 Likes

I don’t know about all states, but GA’s Dept Public Health is updating their website twice daily with #'s of tests done, # positive, deaths, affected counties, so forth. I know this doesn’t right the wrong done by the WHO but it will give those who’re using it the actual #'s. Most, if not all, states are probably doing the same or similar.

3 Likes

Here’s another article, long because it has lots of facts/data, but then that’s what we should be listening to.

3 Likes

Apparently, that post violated site rules.

@OldGnome not sure which post you’re referring to.

The big stinker in this mess is the lack of available test kits. If you have slim supply of test kits, as we do now, they are rationed to the sickest folks. Naturally, among those who are sickest, the mortality rate is going to be the highest. Add to that the absence of the “positive result” for all the moderately-to-mildly sick who are not being tested (shortage of kits, mind you) and you get VERY skewed mortality rates.

In South Korea, where they tested EVERYbody, the mortality rate I saw listed was 0.7% . That’s considerably higher than the 0.1% that is typically listed for seasonal flus, but it’s still a lot lower than the 3.4% that’s being advertised.

Add to that, you have to look at penetration rates - that is, how much of the populations will contract the disease. A bad flu year is about 11% according to the CDC. This is a novel flu, so the population has no residual resistance that might carry over from similar viruses, and it’s a promiscuous infector (long persistence on surfaces, shedding before symptoms and after recovery, air transmission) so the percentages might be quite high.

I did the math a couple days ago using 0.7% mortality and 33% penetration and it works out to 750,000 deaths in the US. If penetration % is higher, the numbers go up accordingly.

The big societal risk here isn’t actually catching it - its everyone catching it at once. Our local hospital system did the math and they say if we hit peak infection at maximum transmission rate there could be 4.8 patients for every ICU bed - meaning 4 out of 5 people who need the ICU level care don’t get it. THAT’S what elevates the mortality rate.

Its also what’s driving the stay-home close-the-businesses social-distancing thing. The goal there isn’t to reduce the number of cases (because it probably won’t reduce it much) but to spread them out over more time so we don’t have all 4.8 people-per-bed showing up to the ICU at the same time.

Our local hospital is making plans for handling the overage, and they’re set up to be able to do so (many areas of the hospital can be converted to negative-pressure environments to reduce in-hospital transmission) but there is only so much medical equipment available. Once all the ventilators are in use, that’s it. Anyone who needs one after that is not going to get the care they need.

7 Likes

Yes, but because almost no one dies from this, the larger problem is that we’re destroying the world economy over it. It seems to me that each country is trying to out-do the others. As was said in Jurassic Park, “Spared no expense.”

2 Likes

Study of the Diamont Princess passengers indicates only 20% tested positively. Thats with communal dining, shared HVAC flow, density of population. Which means a lot of prople are somehow immune to Covid19, novel or not. I cant find the link, I am sorry, the guy thinks the pandemic will be over much sooner than the models show, precisely because assumption of 40%, 60%, 80% of people getting coronavirus is wrong.

3 Likes

@Zee - sorry. It’s sometimes difficult to accurately quote posts on my phone. I was referring to the post @JamesR made, just above mine. I also wasn’t clear in that the post I referenced seemed to violate rules of the source site, not here.

My apologies for all the confusion.

2 Likes

^^ no argument on that. If I snug my tin hat up one notch too tight, I think it’s a deliberate attack on the economy, possibly to prevent people saying “see how good the economy is!” before the election. If I crank it up two notches, I think this is a test run to see where people say “that’s enough, not going to comply” or to see where LEO, businesses, local governments decide to draw the line. That second notch makes me wonder if its an exercise to get people in the habit of complying, regardless of the direct and immediate harm, in defense against some advertised potential future harm.

I hadn’t seen that number, but it doesn’t surprise me.

4 Likes

Very interesting as it was available all morning…here’s another link to it along with a counterpoint.

Both are interesting…

2 Likes

Both valid concerns, with, or without a tinfoil hat.

3 Likes

I find this part of the article to be especially important to understanding what’s happening:

Don’t let them forget it and vote

These days are precarious as Governors float the idea of martial law for not following “social distancing”, as well as they liked while they violate those same rules on national TV. Remember this tone is for a virus that has impacted 0.004% of our population . Imagine if this was a truly existential threat to our Republic.

The COVID-19 hysteria is pushing aside our protections as individual citizens and permanently harming our free, tolerant, open civil society. Data is data. Facts are facts. We should be focused on resolving COVID-19 with continued testing, measuring, and be vigilant about protecting those with underlying conditions and the elderly from exposure. We are blessed in one way, there is an election in November. Never forget what happened and vote.

You may ask yourself. Who is this guy? Who is this author? I’m a nobody. That is also the point. The average American feels utterly powerless right now. I’m an individual American who sees his community and loved ones being decimated without given a choice, without empathy, and while the media cheers on with high ratings.

When this is all over, look for massive confirmation bias and pyrrhic celebration by elites. There will be vain cheering in the halls of power as Main Street sits in pieces. Expect no apology, that would be political suicide. Rather, expect to be given a Jedi mind trick of “I’m the government and I helped.”

The health of the State will be even stronger with more Americans dependent on welfare, another trillion stimulus filled with pork for powerful friends, and a bailout for companies that charged us $200 change fees for nearly a decade. Washington DC will be fine. New York will still have all of the money in the world. Our communities will be left with nothing but a shadow of the longest bull market in the history of our country.

3 Likes

Third notch says a similar thing, like, maybe it is not about LEO, mayors and simple folk, maybe it is to gauge how predictable the country leadership is.

3 Likes

So after sifting through all the Media hype today one thing stuck out. Our VP said that 9 out of 10 CV-19 tests were negative. That sent up a red flag in my head.

The first assumption based on what I know:
You don’t get a test unless you have symptoms. I know this because my wife is a nurse and was exposed to a confirmed + case an they will not test her (or me) because she doesn’t have symptoms.

So…

1: Either the tests are jacked up. Fair guess 50/50
2: There are a lot more people out there sick that are not CV-19 positive.

Which results in the next question …

What are the other 90% sick from and who is loosing their minds over that number?

Answer: Nobody.

The media hysteria needs to stop. Is CV-19 a bad bug? Yes. Influenza and the common cold is much worse and more prevalent.

Oh and lets not forget seasonal allergies

Cheers,

Craig6

3 Likes

What do you expect from a snowflake when they sneeze? They need a safe space, preferably on a separate planet.
My advise is to limit watching news on TV, or stop watching it altogether. This is what I do when annual hurricane season begins. Same information is available on the internet, except they don’t repeat it over and over.

2 Likes