I thought I’d list this for anyone interested. It’s an applet that does not work well on a mobile browser (phone) but seems to work fine on the computer. You can also click the “World Map” and “Critical Trends” tabs for additional info. I’m linking the US Map:
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Either the information is not up to date or is inaccurate. I know the numbers for Wisconsin are incorrect.
I might give them a couple days lag time on the statistics. A preliminary comparison of the confirmed cases in WI cross referenced with Wis DHS Covid-19 index suggests the WI info is 2 days old. The JH site helps get a bigger picture of the situation, although it might not be in real time.
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The Johns Hopkins map and the ncovid 19 data Coronavirus Dashboard, are interesting and provide information.
There is one issue of concern, or perhaps several.
In the 2019-2020 flu season we have had 38 million to 60 million cases of the flu, and 420K-740K hospitalizations from the flu (and the hospitals did not collapse) and 24K- 58K fatalities from the flu… and we did not shut down the nation or surrender liberty, freedom or rights to the government.
Why can we have detailed numbers of a new virus, and have broad ranges for the flu, and with the Coronavirus, they seem to be declaring a fatality to be Coronovirus even if it is a heart attack and the person was positive for the virus…
but they do not count a heart attack as a flu death if the heart attack patient had the flu.
It is good information, but the US needs to start it’s engines again and get back to work… and the people need to stop being so panicked and scared…
Even heard of someone knocking on a hardware store door and saying they were to scared to go inside could someone come out.
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Although I think your question is rhetorical, I agree that, for example, if someone came in with rebar through their chest and died but later found to be infected, I would question the statistics. On the other hand, if a patient was infected with Covid-19 and developed ARDS from the infection, I could see a heart attack being induced by the complications of the infection, and thereby being attributed to a viral fatality. I have not, however, researched the breakdown of the mortality statistics.
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Kevin, Scotty addressed one of your points, and your theory on the stats is unfounded, unless they changed the methodology for reporting this compared to all other infectious diseases. From what I’m hearing from the front lines, there are a lot of people dying without being tested when it’s clear to the HCPs they had COVID. I think the numbers have a good chance of being underrepresented. And to Scotty’s points–there is a lot of cardiogenic shock as the end result of this, but the COVID is the cause, so it should be coded as a COVID fatality.
LIke the flu, it’s generally immunocompromised/elderly/pre-existing conditions, but there are a lot of otherwise healthy people dying from COVID–and no vaccine to protect at-risk groups. No one is discounting the flu from a public health perspective, but if we wouldn’t have taken these steps, the modeling was predicting the potential for millions of deaths. And no vaccine–did I mention that yet? For at least a year?
I don’t think this is going away any time soon. I hope I’m wrong.
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They did, anything that is “presumed” to be Wuhan Flu is now in fact treated as such even without a test per the CDC. COVID - 19 is now a fully sanctioned “Cause of Death” which goes against decades of experience. Oh one other tidbit (and my numbers may be a little off ) CMS (Medicare/Medicaid) is paying hospitals $39,000 (might be $35K) for a COVID_19 admission which is stupid higher than any other admission to a hospital. Lets see, money and presumed diagnosis, What could possibly go wrong.
Cheers,
Craig6
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Huh. That is huge reimbursement. About double what an angioplasty is. I will bet they will still find a way to lose money on this.
I understand your concern about overdiagnosis, but from what I"m hearing, the opposite has been happening. If we see a huge jump in ‘new cases’, that could explain it.
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It is true, if a patient ‘develops’ an infection, ARDS, pneumonia, or some other illness due to the Coronavirus it would be a Fauci has stated, and there are reports out there that have stated they are counting every death that is positive for Coronavirus as a Coronavirus death… and tried to claim that was normal, yet other doctors have stated that is not the correct way to count the deaths.
It is also a fact that the exaggerated models from Imperial College and the IMHE caused far too much panic, and they have been drastically revised downward, which is good… but they started in the millions of fatalities, then 200K, 80K, then 60K… (Imperial College revised 500K fatalities in Britain to 20K and now less.
Some hospitals are already suffering from lack of patients, as the expected overwhelming demand for beds did not happen on a wide scale across the nation.
Dr. Birx “Right now, we’re still recording it, and the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to mark it as COVID-19 infection, the intent is, right now — if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” she said.
That to me is saying they are counting any and all deaths (with perhaps an exception for automobile fatalities), as Coronavirus deaths, just because they tested positive, which skews the statistics and increases the mortality rate.
Ferguson of Imperial College has already stated many who died would have died anyway due to their existing conditions, and their model of fatalities was exaggerated and has been revised downward just as the IHME estimates has been revised down. The modeling was wrong, inaccurate, and not based on good science.
Do you know the flu statistics at the beginning of March?
380K - 710K flu hospitalizations (and the hospitals were not overwhelmed)
Today? 410K - 740K flu hospitalizations (30K people hospitalized for the flu… but all you hear about is Coronavirus.
23K -58K fatalities in March… today 24K - 60K flu fatalities. Yet, little is reported
There are those who are at risk, just as they are at risk for the flu. But we shut the nation down, curtailed rights, liberties, and freedom, and expanded government power…
For what may be simply something slightly more contagious and a little more dangerous than the flu… and the flu has vaccines… but they do not always help… and we still do not have a vaccine for the common cold.
There are many viruses that we have no vaccine or cure for.
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I just wanted to mention, that I linked the John Hopkins website for those interested in looking at the stats that are out there. I am not endorsing over or under-estimating the phenomena, nor endorsing the procedures relative to the recorded death rate.
However, if you are to use both the John Hopkins compilation and the Dr. Birx full comments from where you quoted, i.e. Dr. Birx:
“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem — some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.”
You could cross reference countries with that type of reporting to the John Hopkins world map as well. Again, I listed the JH website for those interested in looking into the stats, which could be used to promote or negate theories of inaccurate reporting by those so inclined to dive through the info and references.
IMO, having both the compilation i.e. from JH, and comparing them to individual statistics from, for example, DHS, may help one’s theory on just how accurate or inaccurate the current models or current proposed models are.
Right now it’s up to us to make our own individual decisions on whether to risk our loved ones lives based on overzealous or lackadaisical beliefs/policies. I’d rather look at the data, decide for myself whether the discrepencies make a significant difference to my own risk assessment and safety plans, rather than assume it’s silly or serious because things aren’t looking so cut and dry.
I would be interested in alternate statistics on Covid-19 that suggest that it’s not causing significantly more fatalities than the flu if you (or anyone) would be so kind as to reference those studies or statistical analyses. Simply stating it’s not that bad because there are too many assumptions is not something I can sink my teeth into while creating strategies to reduce potential threats to my family’s health and well-being.
I’ll add, that part of the reason I started carrying was for looking after some of my family members. Additionally, I’ve had to plan out risk factors for hospitalization, HBP, daily nutrional intake, physical activity, transportation, etc. into my daily responsibilities over the last few years related to health concerns of certain members of my family. This pandemic (whether related to the virus OR services that I depended on to maintain the health of some of my family members) has forced me to modify daily routines and responsiblities until things get back to normal.
Whether this is a fraud, a great tragedy, or somewhere in between, caring for loved ones and maintaining their quality of life is my concern. Having more info (or expert’s testimony) helps me make better decisions related to adapting to current situations.
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Your first sentence is the most accurate thing I have read all day and I had a day off. Your second and third are why I subjected myself to reading wayyyyyy to much on this topic.
There is a study out of Santa Clara which is noting that there are something like 55 - 85% more people were infected and recovered (ie. developed anti bodies) than previously thought. There are some serious flaws in the data such as it was launched on Facebook and the majority of those tested were white middle aged women with access to internet and cars as the testing was drive up.
There is quite frankly a thought that I have had running around my head since November when there was this nasty bit of “Bronchitis” that was running around, they were treating it with Dicloxicillin, Prednisone and expectorants, it took 14 - 30 days to get over that crap with meds. Lots of people had it and some died, no numbers obviously the would be filed under pneumonia or the other new rage diagnosis prior to Wuhan Flu was “Vaper’s Lungs”. Basically all your normal flu symptoms but a unnatural auto immune response which flooded the lungs with fluids as the body was trying to HEAL itself. For those that don’t know when the human body senses a “hurt” it floods the area of the “hurt” with fluid to allow the blood system to carry more white blood cells (the stuff that kills bad things) into the area and expand bio crossover of cells. That’s why when you get hit it swells. The problem is if you get hit in the lungs and your body floods the lungs you drown.
That’s where Redemsivir (SP) and Hydroxichloroqine come in, they reduce the bodies automatic immune response to keep the body from killing itself as it fights the bug. Z-Pac is outstanding Gorillacillin and it kills most everything right now so it stops bacterial pneumonia. That’s basic pharmacology 201.
So time for the tin foil hat. China has this bug it’s playing with and it gets out long about October, most healthy folks get “Bronchitis” and 450,000 people per month fly back and forth between China and the US and another 1.7 million fly all over the world and this bug is killing people all along but it’s the Flu or Bronchitis. China figures out “Oh, Sh!t, we let a bug out of the lab.” The population of Wuhan starts getting too sick for normal and they say it’s a “New” bug COVID -19 (cuz the other 18 COVID’s didn’t work) and they make limited attempts to stop it then go full draconian but now it’s OUT THERE in the public and the world goes “Meh”. The death toll gets higher and somebody notices that Sulfur Dioxide clouds are thickening over Wuhan (SulfUr Dioxide is one of the chemicals given off when you burn humans) China does what China does “Nothing to see here, All is well.” But things keep finding their way out to the internets. So amazingly enough the CHICOM’s identify this bug on a viral level and get the WHO to say it’s just a Flu bug and not transmitted between humans. Our beloved Dr. Fauchi takes the bait and says it’s no big deal for months. The rest is timeline and history.
The take away from this little trip into the tinfoil hat world is that China seems to be sitting really well right now on medical supplies as they make most of them Try and buy a non contact Thermometer China has banned the export of them as well as the export of the major components of Tylenol. It is quite possible that the US has already been exposed to COVID -19 and that there are a bunch of us running around with antibodies. The media blew a gasket with it and the Dimms will never let a good crisis go to waste. Of course there is “Because; Orange Man Bad”
Just once in my life I want to see the Congress, the Senate and the President do what’s right for America and not for an ideology. They should have written a clause into the Constitution that required a clean flush of all Congress and Senate once every 10 years and only 8% of those that have been there for 10 years can stay and 10% of those with 6 years can stay and NOBODY can stay for more than 16 years.
Cheers,
Craig6
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Kevin,
you’re right about how they are instructed to report, and I don’t agree with that methodology.
Although I’m not an epidemiologist, I’ve worked in health care for 30+ years.
I’m getting tired of having to explain this. I think the models were accurate for the disease based on a lack of shelter in place orders. Instead of looking at this like the models were wrong, why don’t you look at it like the shelter in place saved hundreds of thousands, probably millions of lives?
Kevin, statistics are only as good as the interpretation. Comparing a flu hospitalization to a COVID hospitalization is just not accurate. Flu admissions don’t end up on vents for 2 weeks and ECMO.
You need to look at the whole picture. You’re cherrypicking your information. If you live in Montana or Wyoming, you’re right–not a big deal. Tell that to people in NYC or Detroit. My wife works at a 1600 bed academic medical center. In the last 3 days, her team has admitted 100 patients to the ICU per day, filling up 5 ICUs.
That is not a grave for the flu.
That is not about the flu.
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus
That is not about the flu.
That is not about the flu.
If you think this is no big deal and you’re clever enough to read stats without understanding a clinical picture, I’m done trying to explain this. I apologize for my frustration.
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There is one small problem with providing detailed numbers for the flu. They are difficult if not impossible.
It is interesting, they can provide number of cases and number of fatalities for Coronavirus… Covid-19… to the decimal… while flu they provide general ranges of minimum and maximum.
If in the past month, since the first week in March, the number of flu hospitalizations has increased 30K, and the number of fatalities has increased by at least 1K and the flu season is supposedly near the end… .May… and it is in decline, you can consider the flu for the numbers provided.
Coronavirus may be slightly more contagious, that is still undetermined, and it might have a slightly higher mortality rate, and that is still undetermined, and it may have underlying damages to lungs and other organs and bodily systems, but so to does the flu.
We have watched liberties, rights, and freedoms denied, the rule of law abused and stomped on, and petty tyrants grab more power… which may never be returned to the people… and this virus is not the zombie apocalypse.
More information is always better and hopefully good information… and not exaggerated or politicized information.
Yes, we have had to alter daily activities, places we go, where we obtain certain items, and we must be conscious of where we carry and what the ‘new’ rules are.
I have worked in healthcare also, in an emergency field not in a hospital.
I look at the facts, and unfortunately, the facts stand at inaccurate modeling (of course I do not accept the climate change modeling either, and it has many errors and much manipulated data.).;… The models were wrong, and unless it was the desired result to stomp on the rule of law and the Constitution, they should be discarded.
There is no authority for government to issue a zip code wide quarantine, or to deny the rights to assembly, or church attendance, or free speech. Not without Due Process. A state can issue a quarantine if… and that is IF… there is due process and the person quarantined has been determined to be contagious. If you are not sick, if you are not contagious, and most particularly if you have not even had Due Process to determine your contagion or not…there is no authority to deny rights, liberty or freedom.
We have watched a massive tyrannical movement, and much of it was based on fear mongering with inaccurate models.
By the way, do you realize hospitals and other medical facilities are struggling… not due to over capacity, but a lack of patients. On average admissions are down 30%, and hospitals and other medical facilities have been reducing staff, cutting hours… and this is not just in the US, but in Britain also…
I know a nurse who is now only on call, because they had ONE patient one night, and only gained 4 a couple of nights later, due to government mandates to primarily admit Coronavirus patients.
Nobody has said it is not a big deal… .the FLU is BIG DEAL… as we have had 24K-60K fatalities this season alone… from the flu.
If you are in a risk category, flu can be deadly.
Excuse my frustration, but when I say the Coronavirus is working out to be only slightly worse than the flu, it is NOT saying ‘it is not a big deal’… it is only saying we surrendered rights, liberty nd the RULE OF LAW… to a virus.
This is about the Flu… and about viruses in general. We do not have a vaccine or cure for the common cold… are we to surrender our rights until the develop a vaccine for Covid-19 as some have suggested?
Kevin,
I agree with most of your points–both the flu and covid are contagious, potentially fatal diseases. The difference is between a seasonal outbreak and a pandemic. This is the reason we’re (appropriately IMO) locking down.
The problem I see with your logic (and you are logical about due process/quarantine, etc) is that without the ability to test the people as needed and given the fact the virus is contagious for 3-5 days before any symptoms, you don’t know who is contagious. You seem to be advocating for treating everyone in a ‘condition white’–healthy until proven contagious. I’d prefer to treat everyone in a ‘condition yellow’–potentially contagious until proven negative.
First option–virus spreads almost unchecked, or other option–virus is limited in its ability to spread.
While I am aware of many HCPs getting their hours cut, I see this as a failure of leadership to manage resources appropriately. As an example–having OR staff stay home for the last 4 weeks, instead turning the hospital into a rapid training ground (when this started). They SHOULD have trained OR nurses to manage med/surg, med/surg nurses to manage step down, and step down nurses/PACU nurses to work ICU, thereby building contingency for the potential influx of ICU patients.
I have not heard about government mandates to primarily admit COVID–in fact, it flies in the face of EMTALA, and would be illegal. I have heard that patients are afraid to go in due to their fear of exposure. I have also heard about EMS changing their guidelines and not intubating SOB patients due to the aerosolization risk (smart). Takeaway–call 911 before you are unable to breathe…What I have read about is an unexplained decrease in STEMIs (38%), and an increase (unquantified–anecdotal) in ODs.
There are hospitals getting absolutely crushed with an influx in patients due to the pandemic. If we are smart, and follow the stay at home orders, etc., we can blunt the potential overload of the hospitals.
My questions to you–at what point are you willing to surrender some liberty (short term) to preserve life? If the models are accurate (~3% mortality if unchecked)–are you willing to lose what would be millions of people (in the name of personal freedom)?
What would be your metrics? How would you have managed things differently nationally, or regionally?
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I’ve heard a lot of anecdotal evidence of this for big cities.
In Milwaukee, the area around a specific hospital is supposed to be the worst hit area. A family member had surgery at that hospital last week (it was not an elective surgery and everything turned out well). I talked to the doctors and nurses and they said that the hospital is no where near capacity. They have a separate section for COVID-19 patients and it’s not full - or even close.
The huge range of number of cases and severity of cases makes this situation even more frustrating to those who aren’t seeing the numbers in their area.
I get it–the geographical variation in this is huge. I read the resource reports–I don’t think Wisconsin was ever going to be overwhelmed–you have enough ICUs/vents from what I’ve read. Same for OH, but what we’re seeing now is a HUGE influx of prisoners into the hospitals. Saw a guard getting tested when I got tested yesterday (negative for me-yay). The test pretty much sucks, but it’s good to be out of the bedroom after a quaratine. Now I have full run of the house. And yard. And walks for the dogs!
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YAY! Glad to hear about the negative test, @Aaron25!
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Thanks, Dawn. Drive through testing was kind of surreal–like a movie.