Here’s what I know about that - what they’re sick from is mostly Influenza A or Influenza B (yes those are their names) although there’s probably a residual mix of bronchitis, strep, and other typical infections. Looks a whole lot like COVID-19 because they are all influenzas. A and B are low mortality rate flus with lower transmissibility, so they don’t spread as fast, or kill as many. That being said, probably 99% of folks (assuming 0.7% mortality rate is holding as a real number - based on S.Korea’s evidence) will recover from COVID-19.
The big concern is still that we get maximum penetration (# of people infected) at the maximum transmission rate (with the largest number of people possible sick at the same time). a high-peak bell curve. This is bad because there aren’t enough ICU beds or equipment to treat all the very-sick people at the same time. If that high peak happens, some people will die because they can’t get an ICU bed. If that curve is flattened out - which is what the stay-at-home orders are intended to do (reduce the RATE at which new people get sick) then just as many people go to the ICU, but there’s a bed free when they need it, and they don’t die.
The high peak theory says people die for lack of hospital space and ICU beds and equipment who would otherwise survive. That DOES drive the mortality rate up, but not because it’s a more virulent flu… it’s a throughput problem at the hospitals.
And yes, the hysteria needs to stop.
And also the CDC focuses on health-effect only… and that needs to not be the only crisis factor considered. Since we’re letting that drive EVERYTHING, we are creating an economic crisis that is going to last a WHOLE lot longer than the health crisis.
The people who may die for lack of hospital beds is a real thing. It’s a big number and people will suffer. The people who will be damaged by the economic crisis that is being created is a much, much bigger number. Only one of those factors is being taken seriously, I think. And in any multi-factor system, the more you control one factor, the less you control the others. Maximum control of the health factor will create maximum damage of the economic one. And that’s irresponsible in the extreme. JMO.
I have a close friend who is a pharmacist with connections CDC. She learned from the CDC that they don’t have definitive evidence that the virus survives on surfaces to any extraordinary degree.
I’ve lived more than six decades on the idea that exposure is better than isolation. Between my jobs and hobbies and rural lifestyle, including a variety of farm and domestic animals, I probably have antibodies for diseases they haven’t discovered yet!
^^ yep, you don’t get a robust immune system with sterile environments and spotless hands. … insert the theme to Green Acres here… … “… that’s the life for me.”
The NEJM is arguably the most prestigous of medical journals.
The virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces, according to a new study from National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University scientists in The New England Journal of Medicine . The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel. The results provide key information about the stability of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19 disease, and suggests that people may acquire the virus through the air and after touching contaminated objects. The study information was widely shared during the past two weeks after the researchers placed the contents on a preprint server to quickly share their data with colleagues.
With all of the behavior we have witnessed in our government during the last year, it should be no wonder that some of us are skeptical about the timing and hype of this illness. We are being blasted constantly in a way designed to create panic and to influence us to surrender all our liberty and freedom to government control - which is destroying our livelihood and the economy. One may wonder how those in a position of wealth and influence can induce us to accept a socialist state. This could be the way.
And, we are falling for it while applauding those leaders who are doing it.
Stephen,
I respectfully disagree with you on your analysis of the response by the feds.
The data is what the data is. Every country and state’s graph look the same as far as the growth and spread of the contagion.
The epidemiologists can easily tell you the course of this. The only variables are the geography’s ability to flatten the curve, which is only done to prevent the strain on health care resources.
Given that, they’ve predicted that without mitigation, this will not be peaking until May/June/July, depending on where you live. With the steps they’re taking, they have a reasonable chance of bending the curve.
What would have happened if, three weeks ago (when this was still so new that many people didn’t even believe it to be a credible threat) the government would have put the shelter in place in effect for 2 or even 4 months?
What they have done–educating the public in ‘bite sized chunks’–allowing the information to build in a way that increased knowledge, awareness and acceptance–is a great strategy to achieve the goals of self quarantine without panic.
My sources for information on the disease are NOT the government–I only listen to them to see what their response is ( if they are listening to the science/medical experts). Recently, they seem to be doing a better job of that.
Given we have a disease with no cure and limited treatment and a mortality rate potentially approaching 3%, how would you have handled the situation differently?
Even though there may not be another way, and we are doing the optimal thing - it does not mean insidious people are not looking to exploit the situation. If we find ourselves with government-controlled economics and medical system, Universal Basic Income (handouts), some other wartime measures - be sure to seek leadership that has a plan to dismantle such a system.
Thanks for sharing your view, Aaron25. I know that people have differing views of things based on the perceptions that develop during the course of their lives. When you may look at one side of the coin, I may see the other.
Stephen,
I agree with you on your point about people using this to push their agenda and take away our liberty. No doubt in my mind.
I just think this illness is being underestimated by a lot of people.
I agree. Now that this is hitting New York as hard as it is we’re starting to see the problem. I don’t think New York handles this issue well, but it’s still terrifying to see what’s happening over there. Everyone should know this already, but I’m not sure they understand. The issue with this virus is incubation time. We have people walking around with it without symptoms for two weeks while spreading it at the same time. It spreads rapidly. If people wait to social distance until they see what’s going to happen they could already be sick themselves and have spread it to many other people. This is a scary virus.
Statistic wise, .006 of the U.S. population is projected to die from this. That seems so small, but when you start to see how there’s not enough room for body’s in New York… this is a real and big thing. Most people recover, but those with a preexisting health condition are in danger, how many people in the US have heart disease, diabetes, asthma, immune system deficiencies etc… all of those people are higher risk. Then, of course, our older population. This is not a joke. The media over does many things. In some ways they are over doing this (I hate “emotional news”) BUT this is very serious.
If we get to 0.6% mortality, we will have dodged a HUGE bullet. This is (to me) one of the reasons big cities are undesirable. If you want to live like sardines, that’s fine–enjoy all your fancy amenities. But understand that living there has a risk. It was just a matter of time.
The thing that is amazing to me is how the media is so quick to point out how Trump has downplayed the virus when they posted things like this– By Feb. 3, China had extended the quarantine to 50 million people and imposed a travel ban on 16 cities. Now the Washington Post was worried, but about government’s response, not the virus, writing a critical story with the headline “Why we should be wary of an aggressive government response to coronavirus.” The complaint was that harsh measures “scapegoat already marginalized populations” and that the Trump administration’s travel ban on noncitizens coming from China “marks a significant, and potentially counterproductive, escalation in the U.S. response to the coronavirus crisis.”
And now they’re the ones coming out attacking the Feds for downplaying this. I wish they would all (including Trump) leave this to the doctors and scientists and leave politics out of it.emphasized text
In times like these I’m reminded of a (“great American”) quote, the Chinese, Wuhan virus, was created because “somebody did something!”
Talk about perspective.
I mean, we all know Trump will be blamed for it all no matter what. They started calling Trump “racist” because he called it the “Chinese Virus”. I actually appreciated his backbone because he was responding to China falsely accusing the US of planting the virus. It’s sad that I live in a red state, but I still choose to not be an open Trump supporter for my quality of life. I feel like I could actually lose my job, and get harassed just because I support the man who was elected by the American people. It’s a weird world right now, but I’m actually hoping our country will be unified after this corona thing.
I Currently reside in the middle. I’m not in a rural area, but I’m not in a highly dense city. The highly dense city close to where I live is starting to get hit hard.
I’m in the same boat and I don’t like it. Too close if things go south.
I live with a liberal wife who takes every opportunity to hate on Trump. While I don’t personally like him or think he’s a very nice guy with good morals, he’s really done a fantastic job as President.
I keep telling her–if you need major surgery, do you want the doctor with great bedside manners and questionable OR skills, or the fantastic surgeon who’s an *sshole?
I’m going with the latter! I need his technical skill, not his interpersonal skill. Same with Trump. I didn’t want a President who could sing Koombyah–I wanted someone who could get us back on track, and he did.
And he’ll do it again. I can’t believe we are watching a guy in the middle of an extremely violent riot and he’s STILL getting the job done. Acid, bullets, arrows, axes, tomahawks, nasty looks, viruses and subpoenas are being thrown at this guy and he looks like NEO dodging bullets.
