Have you noticed an uptick in these misrepresentations?
Actually expected it. There’s 3 months left to go. I would say what I expect next, but I don’t want to give any ideas. The closer we get to November the worse things will get. The enemy is regrouping and reloading.
Kinda like the uptick of CCP Virus being blamed on church attendance and the Trump Rally in Tulsa. BLM riots have nothing to do with the spread of the virus or uptick in violence. Defund police has nothing to do with it, either.
We’re in a death spiral! Keep Calm and Reload! Or is that Reload and Keep Calm?
It’s funny when you drill down into the Covid 19 statistics.
Fastest Growing Demographic: 18-29 years of age
Fastest Areas Being Affected:Cities with heavy protest activities
But of course that has nothing to do with anything it’s just pure coincidence.
Good Zavier, no want
Blurred anything that might offend I hope
I know the skew with the numbers is frustrating, but please be sure to keep the comments on this post within the Community Guidelines. (Preemptive reminder )
Good show today! at 14:30 Cam asks Rob O’Donnell (Retired NYPD) about the WaPo article posted above.
An uptick? Nope, its the same as it always is.
Can anyone give me a good source on the number of convicts receiving early releases this year? I see anecdotal info but no statistics on actual criminals convicted of violent crimes receiving an early release this year. Same for number of illegal aliens charged with violent crimes being released by sanctuary cities before federal agents can arrest them.
You will likely need to do a lot of researching in articles and doing math. I found some articles searching for “number of inmates released early in 2020” (felons and prisoners got me near zero hits)
This NYTimes article has links out to other articles with more details.
This one is specifically Virginia
I dont know how you may be able to parse out from (for example) 1000 inmates released early, 500 of them were violent offenders.
@Zavier_D – I’d like to know a bit more about how you get these stats? (Also how you do that blurry thing – that’s pretty nifty.) #1 is pretty easy to get, but #2 feels a bit suspect. Most cities have protests, and also the biggest populations, so it does not seem to say much. Most protests are at most a few hundred people (mostly masked, I’ll note, at least the BLM protests) in metropolitan areas of many million, and I’ve not heard of any contact tracing studies suggesting the protests as vectors.
It would be just as easy, for example, to note that the states in the worst shape are red (except California), and the ones with the best recoveries are blue, a relationship that becomes stronger if we look at illness per population at the county level. In fact, you might even be able to suggest stronger presence of virus in counties with higher levels of gun ownership if you look close enough…
As I learned in my first stats class, correlation is not causation. Also something about lies, damn lies, and statistics.
As ever, I find it’s worth going to the source to see what was said originally, before the stories and the studies get spun. Here, it’s interesting.
The Washington Post reports on two studies. One simply notes the spikes in gun purchases first as the virus took off, then as the protests spread. They conclude something very similar to what’s been noted on this site:
“In a society fraught with racial tension, it is not clear that dismantling the police and seeing more private citizens purchase guns will lead to a safer world.”
The other study attempts to correlate the rise in violence with the spike in gun sales, and concludes (rightly, I think): “The authors caution that a study of this nature cannot prove causality, particularly at a time of massive social upheaval in a country dealing with an unprecedented public health crisis as well as a nationwide protest movement.”
Lotta spin going on by media on both the left and the right, and I don’t like being spun
MSM is Propaganda Central. I sense the leftist leadership is throwing everything they have into the fire and encouraging the anarchy. The cities effected the most are those mismanaged by their leftist masters. Cripple the LE when they are needed the most. Dump convicted criminals on the street. Catch and release criminals causing the destruction. Impede law-abiding citizens from protecting themselves and their property. Keep the Federal LE out so their pets can continue the destruction. Causation? Amazing how this occurs right before a presidential election…
By looking up cities Covid 19 stats pre protests to # of cases post protests. Take Minneapolis for example, they were reporting low teens new cases per day and are now reporting around 650 new cases per day.
Pre protests low 100, post protests over 1500
Pre protests low 300’s, post protests 3600 plus.
Pre Protests 298, post protests 1784
You can use that tracker I’ve linked and as I have stated it could be coincidental, perhaps even anecdotal. But the protests I saw were not a few hundred they were thousands and not practing social distancing or masked. I’ve used the same start and end date on each city.
But I have also read pre published research papers on this
the cog at the end of the bar of options gives you the option for blurring
Thanks, @Zavier_D, for taking the time to point me to the data. I’m sure there is no question that many cities are spiraling out of control, and I would not be surprised if some of the protests caused some blip in the data. But I would not go as far as some commentators do to blame the acceleration on the protests. As I said, using the same data you point to would suggest that red states are in way worse shape than blue states (except California), and that if one looks at illness as a percentage of the population its even more true at the county level. There one might actually point to real policies or attitudes that have a direct impact, but I think that would be equally unfair.
The sad part for me is that the US seems to be the only place in the world where this thing is being viewed through a political lens, where each side is trying to blame the other or score points on the response. As I have watched our country devolve into perpetual division over the years, I used to think that one day we’d face an enemy unifying enough to drive us back together. Now I’m not so sure.
For me what suggests a causal link is that pre protests it was the elderly population that was getting hit the hardest by Covid 19. Whereas now it’s the much younger demographic that is causing the rise in cases of reported cases.
When I was looking at an article that made this correlation I deliberately started at a date before George Floyd’s death and ended on the date that I posted this. All of those days data points took in Memorial Day Weekend, yet still had higher infection rates Post protests.
Again it is anecdotal evidence. There is a fair amount of articles on this issue. Just use your Google Fu. I am not intending this to be condescending or about race. I’ve deliberately not spoken about that as this has been a conversation about age and causal effects. As an academic exercise it has been interesting.
Thank you for engaging cordially @CascadiaNow
More Stats addressing Gun Culture:
Of course the statistics used in this study are 4 years old.
Does anyone have an up-to-date source on current increase in violence and gun sales in those areas?