I’ve been watching this story very closely as have friends in NZ and visited. Not sure how many will hold back and face prison…
Thus far, an estimated 19,000 gun owners have traded in over 32,000 firearms at almost 350 “collection events” for $62 million in payments or about $500 per gun.
Given that there are as many as 175,000 prohibited semiautomatic firearms in circulation, that would indicate a compliance rate of around 18 percent. If the current pace of confiscation continues — 2,000 guns per week — officials can expect another 12,000 to 14,000 firearms for a total of 44,000 to 46,000 firearms, or a final compliance rate of about 26 percent.
Wonder if they’re really going to prosecute the other 74%…
If the math so far is predictive, there’s about 105,500 gun owners affected, and 74% non-compliant new zealanders would be 78,000 people.
Thanks for doing the math on this Zee; i’m mathematically challenged . I’m wondering the same. Will they try to make an example out of a few choice individuals or go for the total you stated above? I continue to watch for ANY news from over their but so far we get these press reports and no other conversation from the masses… There’s one group that refuses, the bikers and have stated publicly.
Well now they’re playing chicken… we’ll see if they really mean it.
I think when Canada tried mandatory registration, there was an early compliance bubble, and I’m not sure if they got a deadline rush or not. At any rate the non-compliance level was so high that after spending an outrageous amount of public funds trying to force and prosecute, and with no particular crime reduction, they gave up trying.
Maybe that’s what we’ll see in NZ.
If they prosecute the 78,000 people who are non-compliant (thanks for the math @Zee), that’s 390,000 years of jail time and lost productivity by the citizens of NZ.
There are 4.794 million citizens, so about 1.6% of their population would go to jail… I wonder if they have the facilities for that?
Now if the math isn’t predictive in the number of guns owned by each person, the remaining owners could only own one firearm a person - they’re looking at 143,000 owners out there - which is a lot more jail space needed.
Math isn’t my strong suit, but I think it works?
Math looks right to me @Dawn
That’s what they’ll do, in hopes of getting others to voluntarily comply out of fear. They really are playing chicken. Some people are gonna pay big life penalties for being picked as the examples to prosecute. Even if the effort fails in the long run, those people lose.
I dont know enough about the national personality of the new zealanders to predict if they’ll stand together or be willing to let each other hang separately.
There was some pretty radical talk concerning NZ police who are ordered to come for the guns, searching for their families residence, kids schools of the cops/military who get to knock door-to-door. So far, nothing but talk but if you start locking up the numbers posted above it could turn ugly very quickly. Like you said, not sure if the NZ people will stand together in solidarity to protect their property, buyback or no buyback. This being a “first” for the country… the talk being "if you’re going to cause our families harm by locking up our fathers, brothers, daughters, etc, then we will do the same to your families (cops/military) but worse. Just FYI; this is not my opinion but the text that is out there for all to view.
This kind of schism between authority and civilian realms is incredibly destructive - we’ve had it here, in varying degrees, since prohibition (with a bit of a reprieve in the 40’s and 50’s) so it’s well entrenched. I don’t know how that looks in NZ. A friend of mine lived in NZ for a couple years 20 years ago and she said it seemed very like 1950’s America - if that’s still the case, they’re setting up to damage the cultural fabric in a way that can’t be repaired - just look at us.
We drove the entire South Island and then up to the North back in 84’. It’s like being in rural American and any major metropolitan city (was back then).
Here some very recent articles:
The next step will be additional fear mongering and asking citizens to snitch each other out
BTW, here’s an interesting synopsys of the Canadian long-gun registry fiasco:
one of the truly mind-boggling details is that they spent more than a BILLION dollars when murder rates involving long guns are less than 175 people a year… and even with a billion dollars in, they still failed to reduce long gun murders.
This really shows how much it’s an agenda of control - not one that is really about reducing crime or saving lives.
Noteworthy from one of those links:
“In Australia it is estimated that only about 20% of all banned self-loading rifles have been given up to the authorities,” wrote Franz Csaszar, professor of criminology at the University of Vienna, after Australia’s 1996 compensated confiscation of firearms following a mass murder in Port Arthur, Tasmania. Csaszar put the number of illegally retained arms in Australia at between two and five million.
Just as Australian police named “outlaw motorcycle gangs, Middle Eastern organised crime groups, and other groups engaged in trafficking illicit commodities such as drugs” as beneficiaries of the prohibition-fueled black market in firearms, underground organizations are similarly poised to prosper in New Zealand. Gangs in the island nation announced very loudly after the new legislation was introduced that they wouldn’t be surrendering their own weapons.
So the gun laws turned a lot of law-abiding people into criminals… And it didn’t stop the criminals who had them illegally originally.
Every. Single. Time.
An edict like this in America would immediately result in war on politicans and supporters of an unconstitutional move that would result in a loss if freedom for everyone.
I do pity those decent folk of New Zealand. The line has been drawn for them. It’s only a matter of time before a line is set before us. I’m encouraged by the resounding & collective “I SHALL NOT COMPLY.”
I think we are at the goal line folks and the time for practicing at your local range is over. Now is the time to lock and load. If you don’t see it coming because you were taught about checks and balances you’ve been blinded. We are not winning squat. This is how it started in a place called Germany. Most people I’ve been listening to including here are all saying no worries we have a stable government. If you call people like AOC and her squad, Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff, Bloomberg et al and the rest of these nuts stable, you deserve to have your firearms taken.
The coup really has begun. We gave them the inch… Kristallnacht is only a night away.
There’s no such thing as climate change, that’s just misdirection, it’s called constitutional destruction. If you don’t believe it. Take a moment to think! Free speech almost gone, due process almost gone, the knock on the door to take away your rights to self defense imminent. Remember they are coming for our guns it’s a stated fact now. That’s a bell that can’t be un-rung.
At least the trains that will take us to the gas chambers are cleaner. If you love this country prepare your self. 2020 will be a black swan event. But you really can’t say you didn’t see it coming. Isn’t that the whole point of being in condition yellow being alert to your surroundings and knowing when to take appropriate action. Well wake up and check your six.
Please, if you are totally convinced we have nothing to worry about, prove it!
Many decades ago German military authority ordered my grand-grand-parents to report to certain gathering point with luggage. My grand-grand-father was part of the “early compliance bubble” and no one had seen him since. My grand-grand-mother was not. Well, here I am.
That’s a tough story, and a deeply important lesson. I can’t imagine how hard a choice that must have been for her.
Glad you are here.