Agreed. JIT anything has many benefits but responding to massive spikes isn’t one of them (although to be fair I don’t know anything that would have been able to withstand 2020)
Agreed. I’ve been writing code most of this century (web mostly). I have some shocking examples in both directions of complexity vs robustness. We should all share some horror stories around a campfire 
Gentlemen,
I will remind you that the topic is about supply chain logistics in the real world, not digital logic. And the world…even the digital world…actually runs on real world logistics and economic systems where complexity breeds fragility ( increased frequency of disruption resulting in dysfunction). Robustness = power (how much work can it do?) Resilience = ability to resist and recover from disruption. These are 3 separate concepts. Yes, increased complexity can result in a more CAPABLE (robust) system, but that system will also be more subject to disruption and perhaps more susceptible to dysfunction because of that complexity (fragility). All other things being equal, systems are MORE elegant the simpler they are. This is actually a basic premise of ALL applied science.
I see the Just In Time system as a very vulnerable one. Like a physical chain, you need only break it in one place, anywhere along it’s length, to cause a failure of delivery, and with almost no reserves in the system, there is no way to absorb a shortage or disruption. The entire compliment of daily supplies we rely on become as vulnerable as the electricity coming through your wall, or the water coming from your tap. We have come to have little in the way of reserve stores or alternatives to all these daily supplies we need. No more fire places for heat and light, no rain barrels for a few days of water, no preserves stored in the pantry for the winter months. It’s not that we can’t have a little reserve set aside, it’s that so many simply don’t. Why would they? The trucks always run, and the shelves are always stocked. The system seems as ever present with supplies as the sky does with air to breathe, unless that is, you know how vulnerable the system really is. The ammo shortage is a lesson to be learned about much more than just ammo, and it’s been a gentle lesson at that, comparatively speaking. We have even been given a back up lesson by way of how easy it’s been to cut people off from the communications that we have grown so accustomed too and so, took access to them for granted. Turns out your tweets and facebook posts are more vulnerable than it might have seemed.
Your interesting points makes me wonder if these guns/ammo shortages are world-wide?
The most reliable systems are fault tolerant, both robust and resilient. These systems have complete redundancy so there is no single point of failure. Doesn’t mean nothing bad happens, only that the system continues to operate when something bad happens. We have known how to do this since the 1980s. The logistics of delivery of ammo has shown itself to be tolerant of large systemic failures. We are not obtaining ammo because there is none to be had, not because a system failed.
I think it is safe to say that all JIT systems rely on computers to maintain inventories and move product as needed. Once there is product to move they will return to a more familiar range of operation.
If I built a system for this purpose and it failed spectacularly because I allowed there to be a single point of failure I would be ridiculed endlessly. No excuse for such incompetence.
“Chance favors the prepared mind.” ~ Louis Pasteur
This is why I left the complexity debate alone. Added complexity can add to reliability in a net positive way if it creates redundancy or eliminates single point failures, etc.
A pipe or hose from a well pump at the bottom of drilled well, is lean and efficient. Unlike a lake or pond, where losses are many . However, should your pump, hose, pipe, or electricity fail, ( or if any of the secondary things that make the primary things work, should fail ), you are left with no water, no reserve of water, and, almost no options in the moment, to do anything about it. If access to water is the critical issue, the pump and pipe method, with your water otherwise well out of reach, can deny you that critical access to water for any number of reasons that are likewise, out of your reach to correct.
It occurs to me that it’s the redundancy or, the multi-modal access to the things we need, that we have given up with the JIT system, and many businesses and households have come to operate the same way, and that’s what make me feel so uneasy about our supply chain. We too easily allow ourselves to be in the position where the delivery system can’t fail, because we have no alternatives, and no reserves if it does.
I will try to make multiple points with this one comment.
A fuel “reserve” is mandated for all aircraft flights. You must have it, and you may not PLAN to use it. It is only wise, and the reasons for it are obvious. We do not label pilots as “preppers” and make fun of them, or question their intelligence, for maintaining a sensible reserve.
I agree with you in this instance, I don’t think the delivery system has failed, ammo is getting through at a trickle, and other commodities are getting through just fine. People’s real question seems to be, is the supply naturally falling short of demand ?, or is the supply being throttled, diverted, or withheld in some deliberate way?
Considering that components, primers, powder, etc. are also unobtainable in a similar way to loaded ammo, while other commodities are getting through, makes me suspect that both elements exist within the shortage.
We have been transitioning from being a producer nation, to becoming a consumer nation, we make less of our own supplies every year. That makes us that much more vulnerable to supply interruptions.
That’s a very good thorough treatment of supply chain fundamentals.
In the 1970s and 80s, we sort of developed this “efficiency above all else” mentality in business management; in order to better compete with the “leaner” Japanese in key industry sectors. Americans are characterized by our gift of being able to over-do anything. The natural result has been JIT logistics: no warehouses of reserve supplies, no full stock of replacement parts, and stores (look up the definition and origins of the word) became point of sale (POS) terminals with 1-3 days worth of supply on hand. A factory comes to a screeching halt if the trucks and trains stop delivering their input commodities. If the electricity goes out, gas stations and grocery stores SHUT DOWN; because nobody is trained to manage a retail outlet without computers anymore. That was deemed a “waste of time and effort.” People without power can’t get fuel for generators or diapers and formula for their babies. So they begin to loot stores to keep their families alive. Katrina – excellent example mentioned by another prior commenter. Beyond REALITY, y’all can argue theoretical math all you want to.
A one week backpacking trip through the wilderness can teach a person a lot. If you didn’t think to bring it, or have a way to make it from what’s at hand, you do without,- even if that means you don’t survive.
Made several trips through the Minnesota Boundary Waters Canoe Area as a teenager. Then I outfitted trips for me and my friends in my 20s. Absolutely right. If we didn’t bring it and couldn’t make it we did without. The thing is we all had general purpose tools like knife and pliers, fishing gear and TP. And I had knowledge of some backup resources like wild edibles. These basic tools allowed us to make most things if we had to. We brought food that we liked but I think we could have lived off the land had there been a need. Of course we were never more than a week from civilization so we were not really ever in danger. Have to remember to not cut oneself or walk off a cliff. Always aware of surroundings. Remember one trip where I brought pots and pans, cups and plates, but no cooking or eating implements. We made some simple things of wood and then used our knives. That’s what general purpose tools are for.
Seems to me that at current market the ammo manufacturers are motivated to use their knives and pliers to make as much as possible. Yes, there are probably some windfall profits but that can apply to any commodity.
I also think about the effect of COVID on factory and warehouse workers, truck drivers and retail sales. Everybody has to adjust to masks and distancing and these adjustments might slow things up. Maybe not a lot but a weeklong drag on supply could take a while to overcome with a reduced workforce.
I agree with so much of what has been said. I’ve heard much of what has been said.
Personally, I think it’s a combination of several factors. Covid19 and shutdowns could be responsible for shortages. The uptake in new gun owners & private citizens buying bulk could also be contributing to shortages. But, I could also see the government being responsible by buying up massive amounts of ammo as being part of the problem too.
The ‘powers that be’ play the long game. VERY FEW THINGS JUST HAPPEN. Remember “never let a serious crisis go to waste…” 
I have to wonder if there is any evidence, empirical or incidental, too show that the government is buying more ammo than usual. Have not heard anything about this happening anywhere else.
In times like these I try and deal in the things I can know, and not let the things I can’t know keep my eyes off of other important matters. I’ve seen what seem like a lot of shiny objects in news stories lately, things that grab the eye here, while the illusionist does something else over there.
End of the day, for now, I can’t know the reasons for the shortage, and in the most immediate future, it would make no difference because I still can’t get what I still can’t get. The reason lies work in the first place is because of the possibility that the lie could be true. keeping my eye firmly on what I CAN know often is what outs the liar anyway.
One of my most important metrics about how things are going is not weather people are found to have been doing evil things or not, but rather weather or not they still have a fear of getting caught. When they start doing evil things in the full light of day, with no fear, and then prove to have been right about no longer needing being afraid, THAT is when I get alarmed. Because you can expect a sharp increase once that metric has been reached.
That was the oft-repeated claim during the last ammo crunch during the Obama regime.
It wasn’t true. The gov’t consumes a LOT of ammunition for training each year.
Very wise comment. Thanks.
Depends on which part of the government you mean.
Military has it’s own supply that has exactly zero impact on the commercial market.
I’m unclear on whether orgs like DHS, CBP, FBI, etc fall into the Military bucket or the Commercial bucket. I suspect the Military bucket. We do sometimes see contract overruns from some of these agencies make it into the Commercial side, but I don’t think it goes the other way.
Local (and perhaps state?) police departments I am pretty sure they use the Commercial bucket. They likely get to goto the head of the line. I’ve saw a few articles in 2020 that mentioned PDs buying up more ammo than usual, simply because future availability was in question. The same as the rest of us 
If you feel like doing the research (be prepared to waste a lot of time) you can go agency by agency that might purchase ammo and see what was in their budget for each year. And/Or did they put out any RFPs for ammo supply. You can track year over year if they increased or decreased their purchasing and see if anything flaky comes up.
That made me wonder, so I googled it. Sounds like there is.
I didn’t realize so much ammo was manufactured in Europe. Something about that seems appropriate. The Chinese invented black powder and made fireworks; the Europeans made it a weapon. Hiram Maxim credited his friend who told him, “If you want to make your fortune, invent something to help these fool Europeans kill each other more quickly!”
We used to get a lot of ammo imported especially NATO mil-spec stuff. IMI (Israel), PPU (ummm?), Geco (Swiss?), PMC (S.Korea) i know I’m missing several brands. All of that dried up during 2020.
Thanks. Eye opening. I’m finally accepting things the way they are and making some adjustments. I need to count my blessings, that I was lucky to have obtained my basic EDC firearm needs obtained just before the drought began in the early Spring of 2020. Now settling in with alternatives, and adjusting for the long haul. I have faith that product availability will increase, though slowly over time.