Ammo Supply and Demand

Things we know. Manufactures say shortages will run through January. I can last that long. I think it could get worse depending on the election. Certainly a left leaning publication.

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BE CAREFUL if you click on “Continue Reading” at that site. My corporate Anti-Virus just went berserk!

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@Robert401 Interesting. Mine didn’t detect any problems. It came from a reputable site. Lot’s of questionable pop up ads though. @Dawn if anyone else detects a problem, don’t hesitate to take it down.

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Something else to consider… Under the Obama administration, the LAST lead smelter in the US was shut down.

Where is the lead for ammunition now coming from???

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I’ve looked at this and have noticed a disconnected pattern with availability.
Reports keep saying that manufacturers are running 3 shift levels around the clock in every caliber. Hmmmm
Ok so that leaves one contrived solution of thought and it is not a tin foil hat.
I began to research just how much ammunition is under contract with the government. I then went further to see if any newer contracts were established within the last 10 months. The numbers were astounding!
Basically the government has grouped enough contracts between multiple cite sources to account for roughly 60% of the accumulation that is missing.
Because of Covid-19 concerns and then the burn loot murder nonsense, the government began an “Assurance Control Policy” to limit the endless supply so tensions do not escalate.
It’s not gun control and it is a “won’t claim nor deny” policy. Keeping it on the “ Down Low” so you speak.
It isn’t hard to search various engines and read statements from key manufacturers CEO’s discussing just how much deeper this gets between contracts / experienced owners hoarding ammo / and first time buyers attempting to buy it all if they can.
Within the last 3 months I’d say give me 3-4 of this it that and be told- “ We can only sell [2] at this time. We have to ration it… [sorry]…”
This is not a myth and these are what I’ve either researched or experienced first hand.
58 grain 5.56 in 1000 count containers have been sold out for over 3 months from aaannnyyyy manufacturer…hmmm yeah about that.
9mm / .45 ACP / and the notoriously underestimated .380… dry spots everywhere constantly.
.44 mag lever ammo… good luck! .308 starting to become more of an issue.
.357 & .357 Sig more headaches. It has gotten to the point that you can’t even have range time because you might need what you have on hand.
No more splurge buying sprees. We are having to obey traffic control rationing like my Grands told me about during WWII. Only difference is we aren’t using green stamps or ration cards yet.
When that happens it will eliminate all reasonable doubts.

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Mine did too :grimacing:

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Remember, the Social Security Administration under the Obama administration (and it may have started under Bush)… procured large amounts of ammunition.

As did several other government agencies… agencies NOT considered law enforcement or tactical in any way.

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I have an adblocker running, and it counted over 200 ads on that newsweek page. I would bet thats what your AV flagged.

EDIT: here is the text of the article…

Firearms sales in the U.S. soared in 2020. Whether the broad spike in purchases was motivated by the new coronavirus pandemic, anti-racism protests, upcoming election or something else is debated, but both vendors and researchers have reported rising demand for the better part of this year.

Additional analyses note ammunition sales rose more significantly than gun sales alone. Ammunition manufacturers are reporting backlogs as a result of elevated demand, and some suggest shortages could last until at least January.

Ammo Incorporated, an ammunition manufacturer based in Scottsdale, Arizona, is one of the most recent vendors to confirm a significant backlog due to heightened demand from consumers. Last week, the company said its backlogged orders amounted to $80.1 million in purchases as of August 31, which set a new record after months of increasing numbers.

“Our record backlog has continued to grow, with booked orders coming in across all channels, including commercial, export, military, and law enforcement,” said Fred Wagenhals, the CEO at Ammo Incorporated, in a statement released on September 28.

“In fact, [the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System] data shows federal background checks for purchasing firearms have increased 72% year-over-year and we don’t anticipate consumer demand for firearms or ammunition slowing anytime soon,” Wagenhals’ statement continued. “As a result, our facilities continue to operate at near maximum capacity to meet customer needs and we are continuing to expand our production capabilities.”

Other ammunition manufacturers reported similar upticks in purchases over the summer. Jacob Long, a spokesperson for Widener’s Reloading and Shooting Supply, told the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) news outlet Shooting Illustrated that “inventory [was] extremely tight” in July. At the time, Long said, “it’s clear suppliers are struggling to keep up with demand right now.”

According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), retailer surveys indicated that U.S. ammunition purchases increased by 139 percent during the first half of 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019.

Survey responses also suggested firearms sales increased by 95 percent during the first half of this year compared to last year. NSSF estimated 5 million people purchased guns for the first time between January and July. The foundation collects ongoing data related to national firearms purchases through the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which is used to determine if an individual is legally able to purchase or own a gun.

The most recent data regarding firearms background checks, released by the FBI at the end of September, showed 28.8 million background checks were initiated through NICS during the first eight months of 2020. That figure exceeded total background checks initiated through the system during any previous year.

Newsweek reached out to NSSF for comment but did not receive a reply in time for publication.

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It’s my understanding that Big Government (aka US military) has it’s own supply chain that does not impact commercial sales, except that sometimes we get access to their contract overruns.

I have heard that some LEO/PD have increased or expanded their orders for ammo for training because of concerns of availability and those (as I understand it) do come from the commercial supply chain. Those are orders in 5 or 6 digit $ figures.

But the main reason ammo manufacturers can’t keep up with supply is COVID rules. With social distance rules and increased cleaning their productivity at every level of component has been drastically reduced. Even running 2 or 3 shifts probably still leaves them running less capacity than pre-COVID. This also helps to drive up costs as overtime/extra shifts drastically increase labor costs. As fast as they can produce it, it is sold.

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Thanks for that!

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My crystal ball, at the bottom of my coffee cup, thinks the shortage may go 2 years, maybe 3. High prices, 3 years. Primer shortage and high prices? Rim fire shortage? I just asked my crystal ball again, no response.

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@SKIdaho That’s really strange. All mine will say is “Ask again later”. Maybe it’s broke.

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Real nice to see you again @RocketPak. You were missed good sir.

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IMO, If we don’t get anymore disasters (COVID, riots, so far in 2020) it will be at least until early/mid next year before people stop panic buying and the supply chain catches up to demand.

That requires people to stop panic buying. If after elections things go sideways, push that calendar back at least a few months if not more depending on how bad it gets. If we get another pandemic, push it back. More/worse riots, push it back. Alien invasion, push it back. etc, etc.

Only when the supply chain catches up can prices start to come back down. That will take months if not years and I doubt we will ever see the low-low prices we saw pre-COVID.

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Yep, DuckDuckGo won’t let it open either; with or without the VPN.

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Along with the lead smelter issue, it is interesting we see such shortages and supply chain disruptions.

In the early Covid panic, toilet paper and paper towels were virtually gone, … then we saw some canned goods and food items, with shortages… now it looks like Lysol is in short supply … along with ammo.

And we are supposed to be the United States, and our supply system is that easy to disrupt?

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The tp shortage want because of a supply chain issue it was because people went out and panic bought in mass.

US tp is made in the states.

The reason people started panic buying is there war a meme that went viral stating the card board rollers for the tp were made in China and that there was going to be a shortage of tp because of this.

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@STurgisSTeele. I’ve got VPN too.

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@Kevin29. Back when I was kid, we had so much toilet paper, we throw in to trees. lol

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