The mathematical chance of revolution or civil war

There is always a percentage on everything including little green things from outer space. We as a civilization make decisions that can change these percentages on a daily basis. We have a higher chance today for a civil war due to the hatred brought on by political and religious views. No one especially the government will ever take our firearms without a fight for now that fight is through dialog using the constitutional rights and our God given rights. 90% of all wars begun under these situations, so doing everything that you can to make it through a horrible tragedy puts you ahead of the game.

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After hearing the Project Veritas video of the B. Sanders kook, this constant attack on our President, the potential for election fraud and the likes of Antifa, the potential of some very serious unrest this year is concerningly high for me. Civil War ? I seriously hope not but puts me on high alert especially when traveling. Head on a swivel and keep your powder dry.

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Why do I feel like it could be kicked off in earnest on Monday January 20th at the event in VA (where the governor has already declared a state of emergency, and is moving to block guns from the event).

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Well decipher the equation for me, who will be fighting against who and how will you tell who your enemy is?
God Bless
God Country Family

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Thats the issue!

We are all Americans!! :disappointed_relieved: :disappointed_relieved: :disappointed_relieved: :disappointed_relieved: :cry: :cry: :sob: :sob:

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I agree, if it happened¿ would it it be moderates(from the right and left) against crazy so called alt right(still have not figured out where they truly stand) and far far left?

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Aaaand that’s the sixty four thousand dollar question isn’t it?
I think it starts with “whichever uniformed group (or ununiformed mob) is trying to confiscate your firearms”… but once you get past that, I don’t know how you know.
That’s why if it happens, its going to be very very bad.

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I just don’t see our own military turning against its people.

Although, I am aware in history that actually became reality.

In my mind, I picture our military being on our side, but imagination will do some wild things.

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That is indeed the question that will haunt all of us, should the worst come to pass. If that happens, I know for a fact that of my three brothers, two will be on the “other” side from where I sit.

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And that is part of what makes civil war so deeply deeply damaging.

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I agree with you, Mr. Spock. I think we are in the first stages of the end times. The problem is how long until we move to the next stages?

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@Zee

I am not commenting on whether a catastrophic event will occur in my lifetime. I prepare for just that eventuality. Trust me on that. I was in New Orleans, after Katrina, doing pet and animal rescue, by any definition Katrina was a catastrophic event.

I was commenting on the video, about how easily “Conservatives” would win a 1776 2.0 type of war. I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that this exact scenario has been “war gamed” in the 80’s. I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that this has been war gamed at the War College at West Point. It’s not as clear cut as that video makes it.

Even saying that a Civil War 2.0 would happen is incredibly disingenuous.

The reason that a Bundy Ranch could happen, was there was a place for the opposing ideals to square off at. Since there is no geographic boundary to face off in. This would have to happen in every community in the United States. I don’t think that anyone is going to conveniently wear easily identifiable and distinguishable items that marks off who is on each side.

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According to a guy I know, we wouldn’t stand a chance in a civil war. We can’t fight against our military. When I point out the Viet Cong and the Afghans, he changes the subject.

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@Frederick3

Then your friend doesn’t understand the realities or he doesn’t want to offend you. What do those 2 examples, you have given, have in common?

  1. They have a geographic boundary, so at least there is a location. To send forces to.

  2. Government, put artificial constraints on the military. Do you really think that if the full might of the United States military was unleashed, as it was in both World Wars? That Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, or Afghanistan would exist.

Other things they have in common is

  1. The complete lack of a National will to go in and fully commit to imposing our military objectives.

  2. By their very definitions they were limited in scope and nature.

  3. Were proxy fights with other larger nations, that we did not want to antagonize. So we fought them with artificial constraints.

  4. Have either religious or political beliefs, that we as a nation, have not been willing to go in and fully commit our military to extinguishing.

Finally, as a nation, we have been unwilling to go in and pay the price necessary. Mainly due to our concern over what the World’s Opinion of us was/is.

During World War 2. The Allied Forces were willing to go in and pay the price necessary to defeat the Axis Forces, and d@$* the price or consequences That willingness to pay the price necessary and face the consequences for a complete and unconditional defeat of our enemies has been missing since World War 2.

YMMV

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I know how you feel about that, I know I have a lot of libs in my family, but I do think that family will come first, hopefully.

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Zee that is my concern, which uniform is correct.

God Bless

James

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I believe that is exactly right. Where is the “front” when both sides live commingled? I dont know how this goes. I would like to know more about how it was gamed if that’s not classified.

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@Frederick3. Normal Occurrence when you win the argument and prove your point they change the argument.

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Changes to the data and the results they predict are generational, ie, they require similar large events to cause a change in the results

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I’ve spent the last 30 years doing statistics and 10 years before that studying and planning for war for a small government agency (the Army). With his assumptions and data points, he is spot on. There is, unfortunately, a very small data set to work with and his assumptions drive his conclusions. I would like to add the war against Native Americans to the analysis and I might do that, but I don’t dispute his conclusions, so I’ll make a few observations.

  1. The question of how the military will respond is the $64,000 question. During the Civil War, units and Soldiers grabbed their gear and moved to the side they believed in. Today, the military will either disobey orders and do nothing, separate into fratricidal massacres, or head in different directions seeking new leadership. I’m counting on the first option followed by a military takeover of the government.
  2. Local police will protect their communities. I hope that state and county police will assist them.
  3. Pseudo-military federal forces (FBI, Border Patrol, etc.) are wild cards mostly because they have nowhere to fall back on. You can count on both borders being flooded.
  4. How the various civil governments will react is anyone’s guess.

The real question for us is what to do. Prepping makes the most sense. Years ago, I had a friend who told me that he was prepping by making a map of which neighbors had the most stuff. Not a solution I recommend. Instead, I recommend making friends with your neighbors so you build a little sustainable community with mutual protection. If you are in a city, leave it now or develop a plan to get out. Cities will become death traps. Single family houses in the hills of Idaho are similarly death traps, not because of roaming bandits, but because you have no help if you get injured or sick. Communities are survivable.

I apologize for the long post.

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