SCOTUS agreed to hear Trump’s immunity from prosecution arguments related to the Federal Jan 6 charges. There is zero chance the court will rule in Trump’s favor, so the court did the only thing it could do and added many weeks of additional delay, making it increasingly unlikely that the Fed trial will occur prior to the Nov election. So 3 months from now, SCOTUS will issue an opinion denying immunity and which will say essentially the same as the Feb 6 circuit court opinion.
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If history is any guide, the events of October will have more impact on the outcome of an election held in November than events in the first half of the year. No matter which octogenarian prevails in November, the other side will claim the election is invalid because it was unfair, stolen, influenced by the Chinese/Russians/Iranians. I hope that it does not devolve into Americans killing other Americans, which is the fondest wish of those who believe revolution rather than voting is the path to political Nirvana.
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If you would look at the actual voting, not polling, ~30% of REPUBLICANS do not favor Trump, and are voting for Haley. I don’t think they actually like Haley (some do of course), but I think it’s more of a protest vote against Trump. In the Nov election, the exit polls suggest that a good portion of those ~30% of Republicans will stay home and not vote or will vote for Biden.
Isn’t that the same story we hear every election cycle? supporters are turning their back on < your candidate here>, they don’t have a chance…
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