It will be an interesting next Tuesday evening, and we probably won’t know who won until Wednesday night or even Thursday. Here’s how I see the battleground states shaking out:
Trump takes NC, GA and AZ. He has made gains with blacks and latinos, men in particular, and they make up a meaningful part of the electorate in these states and should offset the nationwide demographic shift toward college educated men and women who tend to vote democrat (Harris’s base). 265 electoral votes.
Harris takes PA, MI, WI and MN. Blacks and latinos make up a much smaller part of the electorate here and while Trump is motivating the non-college educated men and women (Trump’s base) in these states (who typically do not vote in large numbers), that won’t be enough to offset the natural shift in these states to college educated voters (who tend to vote in a very high percentage), and some percent of Republican women who will vote for Harris because of Roe v. Wade. And Democrats have won statewide elections in each of these states recently. 269 electoral votes.
That leaves Nevada. 6 electoral votes.
Keys will be: economy, immigration and abortion.
“It’s the economy, stupid”, as Bill Clinton’s advisor famously said in 1992. The covid recovery has hit people hard and the incumbent is always blamed for the economy. This is the #1 reason why Trump would win.
Can Trump motivate enough people who don’t normally vote to get out and vote based on immigration and transgender issues.
Women across all demographics will be coming out to vote because of Roe v Wade. Women regularly vote in higher numbers than men.
o Right to choose/abortion is on the ballot in Nevada and Arizona. This will further energize women to vote in those states and could swing Nevada and maybe even Arizona toward Harris. Abortion is not on the ballot in any other swing state.
o Wisconsin and Georgia are currently under abortion bans, so women voters there could swing to Harris. Probably enough in Wisconsin, but not Georgia.
Will the handful of traditional Republicans campaigning for Harris have any effect and peel off 2-3% of Republicans to vote for Harris or to sit out the election.
Lastly, will the recent changes in voting laws have a material effect in preventing black and latino voters from being able to vote, and will stricter mail-in ballot rules allow states to discard more “defective” mail-in ballots (which could cut both ways).
Trump is too old. As Nicky Haley said, “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.”
I don’t think “Trump’s a wannabe dictator without guardrails” will have much of an effect on the election, but the “I’m tired of Trump drama and ready to move on” might.
I don’t know, seems to me that this is staged, AKA, a rehearsal, something that our government should be prepared to do at any time in case of actual emergency.
So, a fire drill.
And then of course that the guy recording it had prior knowledge?
Fire drill.
Should Trump win the election, would you seriously want the people flying the helicopters to not know how to perform their duties while North Korea or Iran is firing missiles at us?
I’ve been to Trump and JD Vance rallies in Las Vegas. About 2/3rds of the people that showed up couldn’t even get in…. And they still stuck around outside of the venues in support. The Kamala rallies? They are busing people to fill seats. She’s done here…
I disagree, I think Trump takes Pennsylvania, and possibly Michigan. Pennsylvania has had something happen that is unprecedented x2. 180k+ Amish have registered to vote for the 1st time. Ever. I do not see them voting at all for Harris. Also a big swell for Trump due to the failed Assassination he even has the elected Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania telling Democrats that it’s going to go Trump.
None of us know, obviously, whether this or something like it will occur, now or anytime in the future.
However, it really stinks (to be as polite as possible) that thoughts, statements, discussions like this are happening. Further, it is neither unreasonable nor acts of paranoia to be engaged in such thoughts.
Seems like the majority of things on the burner are turning to custard. It’s a shame, it’s disappointing and, to be honest, it’s frightening.
I am a proud American. I love this country. I fear that these two statements may not forever remain true and that I find to be most troubling.
THIS is what you are voting FOR if you vote democrat this election.
Bodycam footage of Florida police rescuing a woman who was about to be raped by an illegal who just applied for “asylum.”
These are the “asylum seekers” that Kamala Harris allowed to invade our country.
I feel like things have shifted in the direction of better change for our country. I am also old enough to remember the “red wave” that didn’t materialize two years ago.
No matter whether good or evil “wins” in one week (well, three weeks because of cheating), I strongly believe and am seriously concerned about the violence that is going to ensue. Lib-tards are F-ing crazy. There are MILLIONS of illegal single military aged men in our country. Several government agencies have been stockpiling thousands of rifles and billions of rounds of ammo.
Winter is coming….
Meantime, a beautiful thing is happening. Lying, extremist WaPo is collapsing before our eyes, by the hand of its very own radical left reader base!
A reasonable, decent person can only celebrate that a source of fake news poison is but completely gone.
Yeah, Pennsylvania will be tough to predict. PA is a must win for Harris, but Trump can still maybe win without PA. It doesn’t help Trump that his team just called Puerto Rico an island of floating garbage and there are 470,000 puerto ricans in PA. But who is really undecided at this point?
So you’re telling me that the people speaking at one of Trump’s premier campaign events were not vetted? And their speaches were not vetted? That Trump didn’t know who this guy was? Please. If you want to be President, then you need to understand that the buck stops with you. You can’t blame someone else. WithTrump, it’s always someone else’s fault.
Nope, a comedian in one rally did and the response was that the Puertorican senator endorsed Trump. Details matter. Bullet points are for uninformed turds.
But Kamala HERSELF actually and DIRECTLY out of HER mouth called all Republicans supporting Trump Nazi sympathizers and Joe called them garbage. And there are well over 80,000,000 of those in this country. That’s stupid politics to a degree difficult to understand, except that Kamala and Joe are as dumb as their low information voters.
