In a gun fight 4/15 = .26 hits, that's a 75% miss rate?

The investigation into the shooting showed that Anderson fired once, Ruth fired 12 rounds from the rifle and Muir fired three rounds from a shotgun. An autopsy determined that Muir had been shot four times.

Anderson and Ruth are the good guys, Muir is the suspect. So, a total of 15 rounds fired, 4 hit Muir, the suspect and arguably one hit Anderson in the head. All of this happened in a residential area. I’ve got to ask where did the other errant 10 rounds end up (12 of the rounds fired were 223/556 rounds)? In houses? In cars?


That’s above average real life or death accuracy.

Long running real world average for DGU and OIS is about 20% hit (or 80% miss if you do it that way). It’s been that way for decades.

Another long running real world thing, fortunately, is that innocent bystanders hit are relatively rare.

Probably in trees, curbs, houses and cars yeah. The investigation probably found many/most of them, depending.


If I’m remembering correctly when the police finally caught up to the Boston bombers they fired somewhere between 300 and 400 rounds and only hit the suspects a couple of times . They also hit at least one other officer and several of the houses on the street countless times.

So I guess you can do worse than a 20% to 30% hit rate.


I have been taught that when you end up in a gun fight you can perform at 40% of what you have trained for. Where training is key to your success. Your stress experience and training will determine your abilities. Do not forget about Murphie’s law because just like the rest of life it will be prevalent at that time too!


And made a boat look like a sieve.


This is actually pretty sobering, and worth emphasizing to people who train and carry.
You might think you’re a sniper on the gun range, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be John Wick when there’s someone shooting back.
It’s important to know our own limitations.


And probably impossible to ever truly know what our own limitations are until we are faced with a specific situation. Even for those that have experience every situation is going to turn out differently based on all the variables involved.

It’s an interesting mental training dilemma. You want to go into a situation with the confidence and belief that you will perform perfectly in order to increase the odds that you do the best you can. But you have to take into account that your actions are incredibly unlikely to be perfect so you have to be aware where those misses are going to go.


In the words of Master Bobby Lawrence.
“Train Train Train and remember, in a fight, you are not as good as you think you are.”