There is still a long road, and Iām curious how it plays out. When our state legislature convened this January (Virginia) one of the things they get patting themselves on the back was āall of our common sense gun laws are constitutionalā, so Iām hoping this will give them pause at least regarding magazine limits the next time they are in session.
So this victory was on a 3-judge panel where 2/3rds wanted to apply strict scrutiny. Those same 2/3rds said even if it was intermediate it would have failed because there was little/no benefit shown by the state that would warrant infringing on the right. The 1/3rd objected on both counts.
So it is possible that they take this to en banc. The makeup of the court will once again play a huge factor. I do not know for sure, but Iām hearing that somewhere around 50% of the judges in the 9th are conservative (thanks to Trump). So it depends on who gets picked for the en banc (is it random?) as to whether the judges would be likely to use Strict scrutiny (where it will assuredly get thrown out) or intermediate (where it will likely be kept, not because it doesnt still violate but because those likely to say intermediate will also want it to continue).
There is a risk the Dems will take by pushing for an en blanc. If they do, and they win, they risk the case going to the supreme court. At this point, the SC is a toss up. There were several cases the SC had the opportunity to pick up and rule on which if strict scrutiny were applied would almost surely have been victories. For several reasons, which arenāt entirely clear to me, the SC chose not to pick those up. There is again a chance, if this goes to the SC, that the SC will choose not to hear the case.
Much of this hinges on November, and more specifically Justice Ginsberg.
If RBG retires while Trump is in office (be that before January, or if he wins after January) he will put another conservative justice on the SC and you can rest easy that all the 2A cases they take up will be held to strict scrutiny and very few of these laws that we all know does nothing to accomplish the stated goal of reducing gun crime will stand up to that scrutiny.
However, if Biden wins in November, RBG retires immediately after he takes office and is replaced by another liberal judge (why o why is the SC political too, grrrrrrrr). And now we are back to at best the situation we are in now where these cases are sometimes heard, but usually not by the SC. And if any other justices retire during Bidenās term it will only get worse.
My prediction isā¦ if Trump wins in November the Dems will not challenge the results of this 3-judge panel. If Biden wins in November, they will challenge the results. If I heard right, the deadline to appeal is in Januaryā¦