Correct.
On the input/supply side we are resource limited due to the virus and regional/national/global shutdowns. Most global supply pipelines are very long with regard to ‘in process’ time to the end user. They take a long time to run out, and correspondingly take a long time to refill. We haven’t seen the worst of that impact yet.
On the output/demand side we are presently driven by emotion. First the virus and get it now because the cost is going to go up. Then the riots and I have to get it now because I might need it. And finally fear and oh my God it’s so hard to find and I need it now. Without a crystal ball, no one can say for sure where this will go but the trend isnt promising.
In the end, and at the extremes there are two options.
expect inflation and recession on a global scale (if everyone in the world deals with the issue the same) and tighten your seatbelts kids because it going to be a hell of a ride.
turn into the threat and charge it head on. Reopen society with the long term implications of the virus unknown and hope and pray that medical science can ultimately keep up with whatever they might be. IF there are no long term effect then we are now at a point where the death rate is lower then some strains of flu which we face annually.
I can’t say which is right, but I am fairly confident that this sums up the situation. Bullets (and everything else) will get and stay expensive for a long time unless we accept that some people will die.
Right. There is no conspiracy. It’s simple supply and demand. Since February, gun sales, especially to first-time buyers, are up hundreds of percent from last year. These new gun owners need among just like us old hands. At the same time, manufacturing of guns and ammo slowed down because of COVID-19. THEN the supply chain for raw materials to MAKE the guns and ammo slowed down and dried up for a while. For good or ill, we really do have a global economy that’s all tied together. Half my ammo is made in South Korea and the Czech Republic. I’ve got no idea where they get their raw materials. My in-laws are retired and live in Mexico half the year. There was no lock-down there in April, but my father-in-law said a nearby Aquila ammo plant was idle for the entire month. No raw materials!
I posted this in another thread back in April during the early COVID era (man those were the good 'ol days), the owner of SGAmmo put the following into one of his email newsletters. It is more true today than back then…
Sam from SGAmmo has been pretty forthright in his emails over the last few years saying “stock up while the prices are good”. Last year, even before the beer flu, he was saying that prices would begin creeping up soon because the price of raw materials had gone up and most of his upstream had notified about upcoming price increases.
Forward to today, and here’s what he had to say in his newsletter (emphasis mine):
A lot has changed in the ammo business over the past 45 days as the Covid-19 outbreak created the largest rush to purchase ammo in all of history. Supply has been badly diminished, and bottlenecks in manufacturing and distribution will continue cause shortages for months yet to come . From what I am seeing the worst is yet to come on ammunition availability which I believe will reach its worst in the next 30 to 90 days . The buyer’s market conditions which I have talked about in so many prior newsletters that brought ammo prices to 12 year lows in 2018, 2019 and early 2020 have passed. I hope most people followed my advice in the past and stocked up while supply and prices were at their best. At this time supply has for the most part been bought up, most ammo factories and importers have done substantial price increases , and moving forward availability will be limited to what the factories can make and allocate to their distributors. Covid-19 has caused some ammunition factories in Europe and Russia to close and / or reduce production, and most likely that will spill over here to some of the manufacturers in the USA at some point. I’d love to stay positive but realistically there are dark times ahead for the ammunition supply chain. All things considered, I believe we still have some decent deals in stock, admittedly not as good as they were, but not as bad as I expect them to become. If you are sitting on large quantities of ammo it might be wise to sit it out for a while but if you are short in supply it might be a good idea to get a few cases before availability gets worse . We thank you for your support of our family owned and operated business and will do our best to serve our clients well in these strange times, so please stay subscribed for future SGAmmo newsletters. If you have some spare time please take a few minutes and look over the online catalog at www.SGAmmo.com