I’m actualy a little upset that Trump is not getting his $1.8B slush fund for Jan 6 insurectionists. That is definitely not covered by presidential immunity (which is a bullsh!t concept anyway) and would have easily put him in jail.
Read some news/facts on all prior polling for Trump…and recent polling for team red in general. We don’t poll. We vote. It isn’t performative like it is for team blue. Just watch the news.
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In the 2020 presidential election, national and state polls consistently underestimated Donald Trump’s support. Pre-election averages overstated Joe Biden’s margin by roughly 4 percentage points, resulting in one of the largest polling errors in decades. [1, 2, 3, 4]
National Polls vs. Actual Vote
- FiveThirtyEight Average: Projected a Biden win of about 8.4 percentage points.
- RealClearPolitics Average: Projected a Biden lead of 7.2 points.
- Actual Result: Biden won the popular vote by \(51.3\% - 46.8\% = 4.5\%\) (a margin of 4.4 percentage points).
- Polling Error: Trump’s actual vote share was roughly 3.5 to 4 points higher than the final averages predicted. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Key Swing States
The polling error was even more pronounced in critical battleground states, where Trump significantly outperformed his survey numbers: [1, 2]
- Wisconsin: Polls overestimated Biden’s margin by roughly 8 points (Biden won by 0.7%, versus an expected 7.5%+ lead).
- Pennsylvania: Polls overestimated Biden’s margin by more than 5 points.
- Michigan: Polls overestimated Biden’s margin by about 4 points.
- Florida: Polls showed a tight race, but Trump won by 3.3 points—outperforming his polling by over 4 points. [1, 2, 3]
Why the Gap?
A post-election task force by the American Association for Public Opinion Research determined that the 2020 error was primarily driven by non-response bias. Specifically, Republicans and Trump-leaning independents were harder to reach and less likely to respond to surveys than Democrats, and those who did respond were less likely to support Trump than non-responders. [1, 2]
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Not everyone, just some folks.
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Live tally: Trump-endorsed candidates — 14 wins, 1 loss so far.
President Donald Trump’s influence in the 2026 Republican primaries is beginning to take shape, with many of his endorsed candidates winning Tuesday night contests, while at least one high-profile loss highlights limits to his reach.
Key Points
- Trump declared a wave of victories for endorsed candidates, posting “WINS!” on Truth Social
- Several Trump-backed candidates won or advanced in races across Iowa, Montana and South Dakota
- Trump-backed incumbents also prevailed in multiple congressional races
- However, not all endorsements translated into victory, with one notable loss so far
- The mixed results offer an early test of Trump’s influence in the 2026 midterms
14 to 1 and they still throw shade!
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But… The polls!!!
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Brad!?!? Is That You!?!?
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Nope. Pole dancing isn’t my bag…baby. Not doing. Not watching. Not cleaning.
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Reminds me of a snorkeling trip I went on with my wife on a sailboat and drinks were free.
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