Have you done a Threat Assessment?

Have you done an Evidence-Based Threat Assessment?

I was trained in Situational Awareness by former Army Intelligence Officer Will Caito; Will teaches for Sheepdog Response. During the class, you learn to do an Evidence-Based Threat Assessment of where you live, work and play.

One technique Sheepdog Response teaches you is G.R.I.N.

G.R.I.N. stands for

  • Global

  • Regional

  • Intermediate

  • Near

How to do an Evidenced Based Threat Assessment

Global: Who are the bad actors that would want to hurt you?

My family is at church every Sunday. Active shooters have attacked churches so.; an Active Shooter is a possible threat.

C.O.V.I.D. 19 is a Global Threat right now. 1 out of 1,000 people are dying from C.O.V.I.D. 19, and about 3 out of 1,000 are hospitalized because of the virus.

C.O.V.I.D. 19 and an Active Shooter are the least likely possible threats.

Regional: What are the day to day threats in your city?

You can use Neighborhood scout to research crime in your city.

My family lives in Jackson, Michigan . According to Neighborhood scout, the chances of a Jackson resident being a victim of violent crime are 1 in 84 in 2020. This is compared to 1 in 223 in Michigan as a whole.

My family is more likely to be a victim of violent crime in Jackson than to be hospitalized by C.O.V.I.D. 19.

In 2019 there were 119 confirmed shootings in Jackson, according to this article on MLive.

Because of the high number of shootings, stray bullets are a potential threat. A round does not care who it kills.

This article revealed the two areas in Jackson with the most shootings are Blair Park Drive in Northeast Jackson and the southside between Martin Luther King Jr Drive and Fourth Street. These are areas to avoid.

Plus, 419 registered sex offenders are living in Jackson, Michigan. The ratio of sex offenders in Jackson is 79 to 1. This comes from this article. This tells me women and children are likely to be targeted in this city.

Intermediate: The places we live, play and work

I used neighborhood scouts to obtain a report on my Grandparent’ neighborhood. The chances of my grandparents becoming a victim of property crime are 1 in 23. Property crime is defined as burglary, home invasion, and property theft.

Based on this evidence-based Threat Assessment creating a home defense plan makes sense. However, my grandparents have lived in there home for 60 years and never had a problem.

Near: What is within 3 to 6 Blocks of your home?

I searched using the Michigan Public Sex Offender Registry to check and see what types of sex offenders live within six blocks of my Grandparent’ house. I found five men on the registry within six blocks, but none would be a threat to my grandparents or mom based on what I found.

The closest identified possible threats are 4 Pitbulls that live a couple of houses over that get loose sometimes.

If you’re going to create a personal protection plan or home defense plan, then doing an evidence-based Threat Assessment is a good idea.

Have you done a Threat Assessment based on your city or county?

What do you know about violent crime in your area?


Awesome pointers

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With a crime rate of 49 per one thousand residents, My area has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes - from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. One’s chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 20.


Yes I have done threat assessments for my self and family. I changed my habits so one person was always awake since the mess with global pandemics and then civil unrest.

The one I did for my daughter, turned my hair white. That’s why she has both of my K9’s and a CCL, a plan with USCCA and a handgun she knows how to use.


I am not going to say that I am always scanning my area, but I do tend to from time to time try and make a conscious effort to pay attention to detail. I try talking to my wife about possible situations, but I don’t think she realizes how possible a bad situation can turn go down quickly. While she does and is aware she believes that “it’s highly unlikely.” Her train of though worries me, so I speak with my 2 boys frequently about awareness of your environment frequently and possible outcomes from decision making. I can say that in the area where I live and how my house is situated I know that traffic shouldn’t come into road unless it’s the trash man on Fridays @ 6:47-6:55 AM or our Boarder Patrol Agents just driving in and around the area. Usually when my dogs bark in a certain area and with their tone or style of barking I also know if it’s an animal like a coyote or other critters or someone who should be there. I have discussed with them on actions we need to take if something was to occur, but again I feel my wife isn’t to concerned.

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It sounds like you live in a rural area in the country. I would guess somewhere in Texas or Arizona but could be totally wrong.

Have you researched the crime stats and types that happened within say a 20-minute drive of where you live, work, and play? Your area may be very safe or very dangerous I have no idea.

One advantage of using something like G.R.I.N is it’s evidence-based. This is what the report says and this is where people are being shot and killed in our area.


I live in a rural part of South Texas. Exactly 5 minute drive from the Rio Grande. Most crime we have is usually in the form of illegal aliens crossing or some high speed chase down the highway or back roads. Most people in my community are older folks who have lived here for years and years. I myself married and moved to this town with my wife, she was born there. GRIN…looked at it, but still a little bit on how to apply it for my environment and home. Like I mentioned I do try and plan and observe, but it’s hard to convince the family into buying into that ideal.