Have you done a Threat Assessment?

Self-Defense Home Defense
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Have you done an Evidence-Based Threat Assessment?

I was trained in Situational Awareness by former Army Intelligence Officer Will Caito; Will teaches for Sheepdog Response. During the class, you learn to do an Evidence-Based Threat Assessment of where you live, work and play.

One technique Sheepdog Response teaches you is G.R.I.N.

G.R.I.N. stands for

  • Global

  • Regional

  • Intermediate

  • Near

How to do an Evidenced Based Threat Assessment

Global: Who are the bad actors that would want to hurt you?

My family is at church every Sunday. Active shooters have attacked churches so.; an Active Shooter is a possible threat.

C.O.V.I.D. 19 is a Global Threat right now. 1 out of 1,000 people are dying from C.O.V.I.D. 19, and about 3 out of 1,000 are hospitalized because of the virus.

C.O.V.I.D. 19 and an Active Shooter are the least likely possible threats.

Regional: What are the day to day threats in your city?

You can use Neighborhood scout to research crime in your city.

My family lives in Jackson, Michigan . According to Neighborhood scout, the chances of a Jackson resident being a victim of violent crime are 1 in 84 in 2020. This is compared to 1 in 223 in Michigan as a whole.

My family is more likely to be a victim of violent crime in Jackson than to be hospitalized by C.O.V.I.D. 19.

In 2019 there were 119 confirmed shootings in Jackson, according to this article on MLive.

Because of the high number of shootings, stray bullets are a potential threat. A round does not care who it kills.

This article revealed the two areas in Jackson with the most shootings are Blair Park Drive in Northeast Jackson and the southside between Martin Luther King Jr Drive and Fourth Street. These are areas to avoid.

Plus, 419 registered sex offenders are living in Jackson, Michigan. The ratio of sex offenders in Jackson is 79 to 1. This comes from this article. This tells me women and children are likely to be targeted in this city.

Intermediate: The places we live, play and work

I used neighborhood scouts to obtain a report on my Grandparentā€™ neighborhood. The chances of my grandparents becoming a victim of property crime are 1 in 23. Property crime is defined as burglary, home invasion, and property theft.

Based on this evidence-based Threat Assessment creating a home defense plan makes sense. However, my grandparents have lived in there home for 60 years and never had a problem.

Near: What is within 3 to 6 Blocks of your home?

I searched using the Michigan Public Sex Offender Registry to check and see what types of sex offenders live within six blocks of my Grandparentā€™ house. I found five men on the registry within six blocks, but none would be a threat to my grandparents or mom based on what I found.

The closest identified possible threats are 4 Pitbulls that live a couple of houses over that get loose sometimes.

If youā€™re going to create a personal protection plan or home defense plan, then doing an evidence-based Threat Assessment is a good idea.

Have you done a Threat Assessment based on your city or county?

What do you know about violent crime in your area?

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Awesome pointers

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With a crime rate of 49 per one thousand residents, My area has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes - from the smallest towns to the very largest cities. Oneā€™s chance of becoming a victim of either violent or property crime here is one in 20.

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Yes I have done threat assessments for my self and family. I changed my habits so one person was always awake since the mess with global pandemics and then civil unrest.

The one I did for my daughter, turned my hair white. Thatā€™s why she has both of my K9ā€™s and a CCL, a plan with USCCA and a handgun she knows how to use.

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I am not going to say that I am always scanning my area, but I do tend to from time to time try and make a conscious effort to pay attention to detail. I try talking to my wife about possible situations, but I donā€™t think she realizes how possible a bad situation can turn go down quickly. While she does and is aware she believes that ā€œitā€™s highly unlikely.ā€ Her train of though worries me, so I speak with my 2 boys frequently about awareness of your environment frequently and possible outcomes from decision making. I can say that in the area where I live and how my house is situated I know that traffic shouldnā€™t come into road unless itā€™s the trash man on Fridays @ 6:47-6:55 AM or our Boarder Patrol Agents just driving in and around the area. Usually when my dogs bark in a certain area and with their tone or style of barking I also know if itā€™s an animal like a coyote or other critters or someone who should be there. I have discussed with them on actions we need to take if something was to occur, but again I feel my wife isnā€™t to concerned.

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Mark267

It sounds like you live in a rural area in the country. I would guess somewhere in Texas or Arizona but could be totally wrong.

Have you researched the crime stats and types that happened within say a 20-minute drive of where you live, work, and play? Your area may be very safe or very dangerous I have no idea.

One advantage of using something like G.R.I.N is itā€™s evidence-based. This is what the report says and this is where people are being shot and killed in our area.

Welcome

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I live in a rural part of South Texas. Exactly 5 minute drive from the Rio Grande. Most crime we have is usually in the form of illegal aliens crossing or some high speed chase down the highway or back roads. Most people in my community are older folks who have lived here for years and years. I myself married and moved to this town with my wife, she was born there. GRINā€¦looked at it, but still a little bit on how to apply it for my environment and home. Like I mentioned I do try and plan and observe, but itā€™s hard to convince the family into buying into that ideal.

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Welcome to the family @956RGV and God bless you.

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Believe it or not I walk my dog twice a day and each time is about a 30 to 45 minute walk around the neighborhood. I realize during this time Iā€™m also doing threat assessments. Iā€™m checking out parked vehicles, construction happening at the elementary school by me. Ladies jogging on their own in secluded areas. Iā€™m always paying attention to the mail delivery person and if heā€™s a different person I would ask what happened to the regular person. Thereā€™s nothing wrong with practicing situational awareness in your neighborhood. If my neighbors leave their car windows open I inform them. My advice is to you is to always familiarize yourself to your surroundings and you will be surprised at what you can pick up on.

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Here is a list I use, you should be able to check yes to all of these. :us:

PREPAREDNESS TEST

  1. Has your family rehearsed fi re escape routes from your home? YES - NO
  2. Does your family know what to do before, during, and after an earthquake or YES - NO
    other emergency situation?
  3. Do you have heavy objects hanging over beds that can fall during an earthquake? YES - NO
  4. Do you have access to an operational fl ashlight in every occupied bedroom?
    (use of candles is not recommended unless you are sure there is no leaking gas) YES - NO
  5. Do you keep shoes near your bed to protect your feet against broken glass? YES - NO
  6. If a water line was ruptured during an earthquake, do you know how to shut off the
    main water line to your house? YES - NO
  7. Can this water valve be turned off by hand without the use of a tool?
    Do you have a tool if one is needed? YES - NO
  8. Do you know where the main gas shut-off valve to your house is located? YES - NO
  9. If you smell gas, do you know how and would you be able to shut off this valve? YES - NO
  10. Gas valves usually cannot be turned off by hand. Is there a tool near your valve? YES - NO
  11. Would you be able to safely restart your furnace when gas is safely available? YES - NO
  12. Do you have working smoke alarms in the proper places to warn you of fi re? YES - NO
  13. In case of a minor fi re, do you have a fi re extinguisher that you know how to use? YES - NO
  14. Do you have duplicate keys and copies of important insurance and other papers
    stored outside your home? YES - No
  15. Do you have a functional emergency radio to receive emergency information? YES - NO
  16. If your family had to evacuate your home, have you identifi ed a meeting place? YES - NO
    IF AN EMERGENCY LASTED FOR THREE DAYS ( 72 HOURS) BEFORE HELP WAS AVAILABLE
    TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILYā€¦
  17. Would you have suffi cient food? YES - NO
  18. Would you have the means to cook food without gas and electricity? YES - NO
  19. Would you have suffi cient water for drinking, cooking, and sanitary needs? YES - NO
  20. Do you have access to a 72 hour evacuation kit? YES - NO
  21. Would you be able to carry or transport these kits? YES - NO
  22. Have you established an out-of-state contact? YES - NO
  23. Do you have a fi rst aid kit in your home and in each car? YES - NO
  24. Do you have work gloves and some tools for minor rescue and clean up? YES - NO
  25. Do you have emergency cash on hand? (During emergencies banks and ATMs are closed) YES - NO
  26. Without electricity and gas do you have a way to heat at least part of your house? YES - NO
  27. If you need medications, do you have a monthā€™s supply on hand? YES - NO
  28. Do you have a plan for toilet facilities if there is an extended water shortage? YES - NO
  29. Do you have a supply of food, clothing, and fuel where appropriate:
    For 6 months? For a year? YES - NO
    These are all questions that need answers if you are to be safe in an emergency.
    If you answered ā€˜Noā€™ to any of them, its now time to work on getting those items done
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That is a long list brother @BRUCE26 and I will have to keep this in mind. Thanks :+1::+1:

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Great topic and suggestions @Jonathan4 . I have not dug into the weeds of all the numbers but have assessed things on those levels.

We used to live in one of the lowest crime communities in our State. Unfortunately a year ago a new family moved in and a couple of thefts occurred. Things went back to quiet until the scumbag started blatantly casing the neighborhood. The Sheriff was called but he was not caught doing anything till a couple weeks later when several neighbors observed him poking around several unoccupied houses. Fortunately he was caught on camera and with stolen items in his truck as he was driving out of town, likely headed to a pawn shop.

Unfortunately he was released a couple days later despite having prior warrants for missing a court date for assaulting his elderly disabled mother. Gotta love the revolving door system:( He since seems to have left as the house is unoccupied but there is nothing stopping him from coming back.

A week or two after his crime spree there was another man caught breaking into another unoccupied home. He was from the nearby small city. Nowhere is completely safe!

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Great checklist @BRUCE26 ! I can say yes to most though it is a challenge getting my wife on board with actively planning, practicing and preparing for potential disasters. Even though the recent crime wave and a nearby fire have her slightly more open to the idea.

She recently broke down in the desert with our son on the way to visit her folks. A 3 hr wait for a tow truck in 114* heat. She was very appreciative of the extra water and space blanket for shade that I always insisted she keep in the car in a tiny go bag. Though she complained I was taking up too much space when I threw a slightly larger go bag into her much larger new vehicle:/

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Another idea I have utilized would be to go on google earth and select an area with your house in the center and print the selection and mark any danger areas, escape routes, meeting places, hiding places, well you get the point. You can move out further and mark no/go zones or meeting places.
One of the threats we have identified is we have railroad tracks 120 ft. behind our house and I looked up online and found they do at times carry chemicals so we purchased full face respirators and precut plastic sheeting and duct tape for the bedroom door and two windows if we donā€™t have time to evacuate. :us:

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